Lay the Points

With today’s failing housing market and slumping economy, in recent memory there has never been a time that has been more important for sage gambling advice. Vegas reportedly lost $2.6 million on the Super Bowl, which was the worst loss ever on the Big Game. This also means that we beat Vegas. We (the American people) won that $2.6 million.

The odds on that game were relatively consistent with what New England was favored by most of the season, even though they failed to cover the last six weeks. But the fact that the Giants won the game outright was the difference. Money line wagers resulted in huge returns.

So where’s the next logical “hot pick” to wager on? Usually golf is lost in the shuffle of the gambling scene, with the most famous wagers on the sport having been made by Al Cervik and Judge Smales. Yet, anyone who does golf knows that a great deal of money changes hands during so-called “friendly” rounds. It’s just that not a lot of Americans bet on golf. It’s huge in Europe, where the sport is watched more feverishly. But now, Vegas has the American public right where they want them. They can sense Tiger Fever, and have stacked the deck against the gamblers.

If young Eldrick wins just one major in a year, it is a disappointment. For most other players, winning a major is the highlight of their lives. Tiger’s odds for winning at least one major in 2008: 1 to 7.

1 to 7.

Not 7 to 1. For the uneducated, there are four major championships, yet he will be competing against hundreds of golfers over the course of those four events. True, his chances of winning one are good, but still not THAT good. The odds on favorite to win the World Series this year is the Mets at 4 to 1. There are 29 other teams, not hundreds of golfers. And also, the Mets have room for error. They could lose a ton of games, even 70 games or so, and still win the World Series. Tiger has to put four winning rounds together in a row just to pay off a tiny fraction of your bet.

What’s even more startling, are Tiger’s odds to win the Grand Slam in 2008. 7 to 2.

7 to 2.

Granted, this has only been done one other time in the history of the game. In 1930. So, if Tiger plays 16 flawless rounds, my $20 bet will get me $70. This is the equivalent of if the odds for the Patriots to go 19-0 were 7 to 2. (might be a bad example considering how close they got). But still, to do something that has only been done once in the HISTORY of your sport, to pretty much be perfect, and the odds are ok for your payout. This is like giving Norbit 7 to 2 odds to win Best Picture on Sunday. Just don't lay your money on Tiger this year. Take the field every chance you get. Statistically you'd be stupid to bet on Woods.

But wait, you might be saying, “Axel is the one who three weeks ago told us Tiger wasn’t going to lose all year.”

Yeah, I still think that. I just want to make some money off of it.